I’ve got Georgia and Alabama in the Playoff.” College Football National Championship Odds: The Longshotsįinding Value in the College Football National Championship Odds MarketĮvery year, there’s a lot of “value” discussion in this part of the odds table. I’m not going to be the guy that doesn’t pick Alabama to make the Playoff. The last time they came in as preseason No. They’re at the bottom of my experience chart.”īut Steele continued: “But they’ve got this guy Nick Saban on the sidelines – he’s only won one national championship as a preseason No. They don’t know who their quarterback is. “They only have five starters back on offense, five on defense. “You know, you look at Alabama on paper and you’ve got all kinds of question marks,” Steele said, preparing to highlight Alabama’s weaknesses. Steele came on my handicapping podcast, The Lion’s Edge, just a few days before the season started and was bullish on Alabama’s chances to return to the College Football Playoff. Phil Steele, college football analyst and preseason magazine legend, really liked Alabama’s chances to return to the CFP in the preseason. If either Alabama or LSU is a 12-1 SEC champion in three months, they are a lock for the College Football Playoff. The college football season is months long, which means nobody should be counted out just yet.
+60% of bets are on the OVER for all teams but /KE6L90df6m
LSU, which also lost an early-season game despite championship aspirations, dropped to +4000 after Week 1. As a result, Alabama (1-1) dropped to +3300 in the championship market. However, Alabama showed its vulnerability in Week 2, when Quinn Ewers and Texas outdueled Jalen Milroe in Tuscaloosa. 8, they had attracted 10.5% of all championship tickets and 12.1% of all championship handle at BetMGM. Prior to the season, the betting market preferred old, reliable Alabama. Would Georgia have enough on the resume to merit Playoff consideration under that scenario? Their presumed non-conference wins would be UT-Martin, Ball State, UAB, and Georgia Tech. 18, potentially boxing the champs out of this season’s SEC title game. Josh Heupel’s offense could potentially outrun Georgia in a track meet in Knoxville on Nov. Some bettors will be tempted to chase the value with an unblemished team like Tennessee (+4000). Unfortunately, many of the main contenders have already lost games. Since 13 of the last 17 national champions have come from the SEC, it’s worth starting the search for other national championship candidates inside the southeastern conference. But which top-level candidates are the best alternatives to bet? Georgia is deeply priced out and ripe for fading, as I pointed out earlier. SEC Football Challengers: What To Do With Alabama and LSU? Early tests include a home game in Week 3 against South Carolina and Georgia’s first road trip – at Auburn – on Sept.
Bennett was never a world-class recruit, but he did evolve into a real gamer as the signal-caller for Georgia.īeck’s ability to operate the offense while minimizing mistakes will be key to Georgia’s 2023 title defense. Nonetheless, Beck is obviously a critical piece when evaluating the incoming successes and failures of this Georgia team. But Georgia has won back-to-back national championships on the strength of its elite defense and timely offense, and Todd Monken has left for the NFL, so I’m not sure how likely it is for Beck to pile up preposterous, Heisman-quality numbers in this Georgia offense. Beck is now the official successor to Stetson Bennett’s wild, successful, and strangely middle-aged run as a college quarterback.īeck shot up the Heisman Trophy odds board pretty much as soon as the decision was announced, which makes sense on some level. Head coach Kirby Smart officially named Carson Beck as the starter in Athens on Aug. This indicates to me that the 2023 championship market will be more wide-open than last year’s, where it was widely speculated for most of the year that only three teams (Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State) were elite enough to win the title. Still, even with no co-favorite to draw big bets at the top of the market away from Georgia, the Bulldogs were +300 early in the market – a more lucrative price than they were offered last year. Georgia is a clear (and sensible) favorite after winning back-to-back championships.
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